Financial Regulation

Published on Twitter, August 7, 2014

Lessons learned by managers and shareholders of large regulated financial institutions for the next financial crisis:

  • There is no risk of individual executive criminal prosecution whatsoever.

  • Bailouts are guaranteed, particularly for bondholders, for all but the weakest members of the herd.

  • The one thing that will get punished is acceding to the government's request/demand for stronger companies to buy weaker companies.

  • Ultimate fines will be levied against your shareholder base 8 years in the future, not your shareholder base when the sins are committed.

  • "Too big to fail" institutions will be allowed to become bigger than ever, increasing their safety buffer for next time.

    • For bonus points, regulatory barriers against new competition will be raised, not lowered, further entrenching incumbents.

    • Regulators on whose watch the last crisis happened, will be allowed to become even bigger and more powerful.

      *All three gov't branches -- executive, legislative, and judicial -- are out to lunch on oversight.

Followup reading, from US Federal Judge Jed Rakoff: http://www.nybooks.com/articles/archives/2014/jan/09/financial-crisis-why-no-executive-prosecutions/

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